So I removed the hub cap, expecting to have to tighten up the fixing cap.
Nope, still nice and tight.
So I removed the idler completely...
Inner bearing is toast. Some of the ball bearings came out in pieces

Being at the front, idlers on Centurions are very exposed, so I wonder if this model has suffered a front end collision, which damaged the bearing somehow.
I've ordered new SKF bearings, and will replace all four at the front, just in case.
Adrian.